By now, you’ve heard all the cliches. The party of the President normally loses seats in Congress in the mid-term elections in the first term. The public is increasingly discontent, which increases the likelihood they will take out their frustrations on the President’s party. The list of reasons goes on, and it’s probably correct. The conventional wisdom normally proves reliable.

Surprises, however, are a fact of life that are never predicted, which is why we call them surprises. For instance, in the late 1980s no one predicted that the Soviet Union would be a memory within a few years. Likewise, almost no one in 1992 imagined that Republicans would dominate the 1994 elections and gain unified control of Congress for the first time in more than 40 years.

That said, in voting, the late swing is often the most important. While candidate preference goes back and forth during the early part of the campaign, the late swing in public opinion is generally the most durable. Voters have settled on their preferred candidate and are unlikely to be persuaded otherwise before election day. The late swing appears to favor Republicans in Congress, with the House of Representatives most likely to come under GOP control and a reasonable chance in the Senate races, with a few of the toss-up matches beginning to break toward Republican candidates. Read More >>